Simulate the climate
High-resolution physics generates thousands of consistent weather scenarios across any geography and horizon.
Probabilistic climate intelligence for energy
Never be surprised
Never be surprised
by extremes again.
Outliers are in. Start planning like it. Sunairio simulates the full distribution of weather, renewable generation, demand and power prices — from 15 days to 15 years out.
97%of extreme events missed by traditional forecasts
15d–15yrforecast horizon, one engine
Fulldistribution — not just an average
Built for the people who keep the lights on
- Utilities
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- Traders
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- Renewable developers
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- Insurers
The Problem
Averages can’t price a heat dome, a polar vortex, or a dead-calm week.
Traditional forecasts collapse the future into a single expected line. That line hides the tails — the rare, expensive extremes that actually break grids, blow up trades and trigger claims. By design, conventional models miss roughly 97% of extreme events.
One path. False confidence.
A smooth average through past, present and future — comfortable, and wrong exactly when it matters most.
Every plausible future, weighted.
Thousands of physically-consistent paths reveal the tail risk — so the extreme is on your radar before it arrives.
How It Works
Probabilistic climate simulation, purpose-built for energy.
Sunairio doesn’t predict a number. It simulates the climate system thousands of times to produce a probability for every outcome — then translates that into the generation, demand and price signals you trade and plan on.
Translate to energy
Each scenario flows into renewable generation, load and power-price curves tailored to your assets and markets.
Quantify the tails
You see the full distribution — P5 to P95 and beyond — with the extremes priced, not averaged away.
Plan with confidence
Hedge, position, size reserves and underwrite risk against the outcomes that actually move your P&L.
From 15 days to 15 years — one coherent engine.
Whether you’re managing tomorrow’s dispatch or underwriting a 15-year PPA, the same probabilistic core delivers consistent, decision-ready risk. No stitching together short-term forecasts with long-term climate guesses.
- Weather, generation, demand and prices in one model
- Solar, wind, hydro and thermal coverage
- Tail risk and extremes quantified by design
Products
Two ways to put the full distribution to work.
Sunairio ONE
The probabilistic forecasting platform.
Explore renewable generation, load and price scenarios across markets and horizons in one workspace. Drill from the expected case into the tails, compare assets, and export decision-ready distributions.
- Solar and wind generation profiles
- Demand & load forecasting
- Power-price scenarios with tail detail
SHED
The high-resolution weather & climate dataset.
SHED is Sunairio’s proprietary, high-resolution climate dataset — the physical foundation beneath every forecast. Consistent across history and horizon, it powers the simulations and is available to feed your own models.
- High spatial and temporal resolution
- Consistent from historical record to long-range outlook
- Designed to drive energy-sector simulation
Where We Fit
One distribution. Many decisions.
Utilities & grid operators
Size reserves, plan dispatch and stress-test reliability against the extremes that cause outages.
Energy traders
Position and hedge with the tail risk priced in — from day-ahead through long-dated curves.
Renewable developers
Underwrite P50/P90 generation and revenue with credible long-horizon distributions.
Insurers
Price and reserve for weather-driven risk using physically-consistent extreme scenarios.
Backed By
Capital from people who understand the climate–energy frontier.
Techstars 2021
Buoyant Ventures
Constellation Technology Ventures
MassMutual Ventures
Rosecliff Ventures
NSF
~$8.8M raised · Founded by Rob Cirincione
Outliers are in.
Start planning like it.
See the full distribution of your energy future — book a walkthrough of Sunairio ONE.
Request a demo